Examining the Trend of the NBA Blowout

First of all, thank you for reading this week’s newsletter. Glad I was able to take a week off for the Thanksgiving Holiday and was able to spend some great time with my lovely little family. I hope you all had an enjoyable holiday as well, and are excited for 2025! I hope you enjoy this week’s issue!

Examining the Fascinating Trend of the NBA Blowout.

Now I know what you’re (probably) thinking. “Of course there was a blowout, it’s two well performing teams playing against two teams that have struggled.” Right? Now for the Wizards, you’re right there, they’ve had a rough go this season (sorry to any DC fans).

However, the fascination I have with blowouts and why they’re occurring runs deeper than that. I enjoy watching basketball, and enjoy betting on a sport I like to watch a lot of, and it’s been immensely frustrating to place a bet on a game or a player, only to have the game be a 25 point margin at the half, and the coach decides to put in the 2nd, or dare I say it, the 3rd string guys. Now, to be fair, I do think that it’s great that those players get a chance to show what they’re made of, and potentially earn some more minutes on the court. I also think it’s important to keep your starters healthy and not play them too hard, especially with teams on the first leg of a back to back series of games.

Deep dive time here. Apologies in advance.

2019: The average margin of victory was 11.41 points across 1,060 games, with 151 blowouts, accounting for 14.25% of all games.

2020: The average margin rose to 12.18 points over 1,080 games, with 183 blowouts, making up 16.94% of the total.

2021: The average margin slightly increased to 12.37 points, with 1,230 games played and 209 blowouts, representing 16.99% of games.

2022: The average margin dropped to 11.18 points, with 1,230 games and 162 blowouts, or 13.17% of all games.

2023: The average margin reached its highest in this span at 12.64 points, with 1,164 games and 205 blowouts, which is 17.61% of the total.

2024 (current season): The average margin was 11.93 points across 277 games, with 46 blowouts, making up 16.61% of the games.

As we can see above, the overall trend of the blowout is increasing in the NBA. Not only % of overall games, but average margin of victory as well.

Another trend we can examine here is the number of games overall is increasing, thus, more games that your starting five are playing goes up as well.

Alright, with all that said, why does this matter? Let’s go over that in the next section.

Why Does it Even Matter?

Let’s start this question with some more data. Here is player data with the averages for all players that play in any given blowout game.

Points (Average): Players on winning teams scored an average of 8.15 points, while losing teams averaged 7.32 points.

Assists (Average): Players on winning teams recorded 1.90 assists per game on average, compared to 1.62 assists for losing teams.

Rebounds (Average): Players on winning teams averaged 3.34 rebounds per game, slightly higher than the 3.09 rebounds for losing teams.

In my humble opinion, the NBA blowout matters more than folks think. Sure, it’s frustrating as a sports bettor to have a great read on a guy, and he gets to play 21 minutes and he scores 18 points when you needed him for 19 (looking at you OG Anunoby). However, I think it goes even deeper than that.

I think most people who enjoy watching sports want to be entertained (even better if their team wins, and they’re entertained while they do). And I don’t know about you, but it’s really not enjoyable watching the Knicks beat on the Hornets and come out 125-101 like they did on Dec 5. I strongly believe that watching basketball that keeps me on the edge of my seat, and cherishing every three that my team makes, and the crushing blows when the opponent retaliates is what makes sports so exciting.

Think about the last time you watched a sporting event, doesn’t matter the sport or even the level, we can even think about college football here for a second. When watching that sport, how many of the times when your team (Go Penn State!) is up by 40 in the 3rd quarter, do you see the crowd starting to file out and hit the bars? I’d hazard a guess, and say a lot, if not all of them. I think that speaks to the value that sports provide to people who pay to see an event, and want to cheer their team on in a meaningful way.

Blowouts will always happen in sports, that’s just the nature of the game, but I think that the less it happens, the better it is for the fans and teams alike.

Thank you for reading, and I hope you enjoyed!

Have anything you’d like to see covered? Head over to my X profile and @ me or shoot me a DM and I’ll do my best to include it in the upcoming issue!